Index page for ENSO blog posts

April 3, 2018

ENSO 101

What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a nutshell?

El Niño and La Niña Alert System

Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities?

How ENSO leads to a cascade of global impacts

The Spring Predictability Barrier: we’d rather be on Spring Break

Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one?

Oceanic Kelvin waves: The next polar vortex*

Betting on Climate Predictions

The Walker Circulation: ENSO's atmospheric buddy

The ENSO Signal and The Noise

United States El Niño Impacts

Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season

El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions

ENSO Flavor of the Month

Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring

How will we know when an El Niño has arrived?

Why Past ENSO Cases Aren’t the Key to Predicting the Current Case

The life and death of El Niño


Posts about how we monitor ENSO

The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign

Dearest TAO: A love letter to marine-based observations

Exactly the same, but completely different: why we have so many different ways of looking at sea surface temperature

El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond

Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one?


Posts about things other than ENSO

The Madden Julian Oscillation has been active so far this winter. Here is why it matters.

Another non-ENSO thing that affects seasonal forecasts

El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex

The tropics as a prime suspect behind the warm-cold split over North America during recent winters

The role of the ocean in tempering global warming

Butterflies, rounding errors, and the chaos of climate models

Your eight-minute speed date with the Pacific Meridional Mode

Going out for ice cream: a first date with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

What is the MJO, and why do we care?

ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think

How much do climate patterns influence predictability across the United States?

Other climate patterns that impact U.S. winter climate


Posts about forecast verification

30% of the time, it rains every time

Seasonal Verification Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

Seasonal Verification Part 3: Verify with a Vengeance...This time it's probabilistic.

How Good Have ENSO Forecasts Been Lately?

Meteorological winter is over. How’d we do? (2017-18 winter)

Winter Outlook 2016-17 – How did we do?

Winter’s finally over: How did the NOAA Climate Outlook do in 2014-15?

Were Model Predictions of El Niño a Big Bust?  (2014)

The Incredible Growth of the 2015-16 El Niño followed by the Incredible Shrinking La Niña Forecast


Posts about ENSO impacts

The long arm of the California drought

A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser

How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?

ENSO and tornadoes

More U.S. drought in a second-year La Niña?

Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?

What about snow during La Niña winters?

How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017?

Fun with Statistics: El Niño and California Rainfall

Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season

United States El Niño Impacts

Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?

ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think

No, you can’t blame it all on El Nño

With El Niño likely, what climate impacts are favored for the summer?

Writing about La Niña, the U.S., and the Jet stream and THIS HAPPENS.  


Posts about ENSO and climate change

Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models

Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2

ENSO + Climate Change = Headache

A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser


Posts previewing the winter outlook

Winter is coming: NOAA’s 2017-2018 Winter Outlook

What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2016-17 Winter Outlook

What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2015-16 outlook reveals what conditions are favored across the US

What's in store for the United States this (2014-15) winter?


Posts with guest authors

Richard Allan: The role of the ocean in tempering global warming

Gerry Bell: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season

Amy Butler: El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex

Kim Cobb: A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser

Mat Collins: Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2

Eric Guilyardi: Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models

Mike Halpert: United States El Niño Impacts

Dennis Hartmann: The warm-cold split over North America

Kris Karnauskas:El Niño and the Galápagos

Phil Klotzbach: How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017?

Aaron Levine: Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring

Mike McPhaden: Predicting El Niño Then and Now

Ángel Muñoz: La Niña, did you orchestrate this?

Adam Sobel: No El Niño yet, but temperatures in tropical atmosphere are already warm

Amy Solomon, Gil Compo:The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign

Andrew Watkins: El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond

S.-Y. Simon Wang: How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?

Ken Takahashi:One forecaster’s view on extreme El Niño in the eastern Pacific

Ken Takahashi: ENSO forecasters in offices getting coffee

Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore: ENSO and tornadoes

S.-Y. Simon Wang: The long arm of the California drought


Top of the month posts (forecast discussion)

2018

January 2018 La Niña update: summiting the peak

February 2018 La Niña update: tuned in

March 2018 ENSO update: come on in, the water’s fine

2017

December 2017 La Niña update: Double, double

November 2017 La Niña update: She’s back!

October 2017 ENSO update: Still watching for La Niña

September ENSO update: La Niña Watch!

August 2017 ENSO update: Extreme neutral!

July 2017 ENSO update: Holding steady

June 2017 ENSO update: pancake breakfast

May 2017 ENSO Update: Mayday

April 2017 ENSO update: Conflicting signals

March 2017 ENSO update: on the fence

February 2017 ENSO update: bye-bye, La Niña!

January 2017 ENSO update: Happy New Year!

2016

December 2016 ENSO Update: Weeble wobbles

November 2016 La Niña update: Hello, lady!

Antici...pation: October 2016 ENSO forecast

September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels

August 2016 ENSO update: Wavy gravy

July 2016 ENSO discussion: Enjoy neutral while it lasts!

June 2016 ENSO discussion: The new neutral

May 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: Switcheroo!

April 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: What goes up…

March 2016 El Niño update: Spring Forward

February 2016 El Niño update: Q & A…and some Thursday-morning quarterbacking

January El Niño update: It’s got a lot going on

2015

December El Niño update: phenomenal cosmic powers!

November El Niño update: It’s a small world

October 2015 El Niño update: Pumpkin spice

September 2015 El Niño Update and Q&A

August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious

July 2015 El Niño update: Bruce Lee?

June El Niño update: Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead

May 2015 ENSO Forecast: Will this El Niño be an overachiever, or peaked-in-high-school?

Details on the April ENSO Forecast

March 2015 ENSO discussion: El Niño is here

Details on the February ENSO Discussion: On the edge?

January ENSO update: The little engine that couldn't quite

2014

December's ENSO Update: Close, but no cigar.

Details on the November ENSO forecast: slip-slidin’ away?

Details on the October ENSO Diagnostic Discussion: Trust, but verify.

Details on the September ENSO diagnostic discussion—late, or never?

Details on the August 7th ENSO Discussion: how has the forecast changed?

EN... SO?