Index page for ENSO blog posts
ENSO 101
What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a nutshell?
El Niño and La Niña Alert System
Why do ENSO forecasts use probabilities?
How ENSO leads to a cascade of global impacts
The Spring Predictability Barrier: we’d rather be on Spring Break
Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one?
Oceanic Kelvin waves: The next polar vortex*
Betting on Climate Predictions
The Walker Circulation: ENSO's atmospheric buddy
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
El Niño and La Niña: Frequently asked questions
Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring
How will we know when an El Niño has arrived?
Why Past ENSO Cases Aren’t the Key to Predicting the Current Case
Posts about how we monitor ENSO
The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign
Dearest TAO: A love letter to marine-based observations
El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond
Why are there so many ENSO indexes, instead of just one?
Posts about things other than ENSO
The Madden Julian Oscillation has been active so far this winter. Here is why it matters.
Another non-ENSO thing that affects seasonal forecasts
El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex
The tropics as a prime suspect behind the warm-cold split over North America during recent winters
The role of the ocean in tempering global warming
Butterflies, rounding errors, and the chaos of climate models
Your eight-minute speed date with the Pacific Meridional Mode
Going out for ice cream: a first date with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
What is the MJO, and why do we care?
ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think
How much do climate patterns influence predictability across the United States?
Other climate patterns that impact U.S. winter climate
Posts about forecast verification
30% of the time, it rains every time
Seasonal Verification Part 2: Electric Boogaloo
Seasonal Verification Part 3: Verify with a Vengeance...This time it's probabilistic.
How Good Have ENSO Forecasts Been Lately?
Meteorological winter is over. How’d we do? (2017-18 winter)
Winter Outlook 2016-17 – How did we do?
Winter’s finally over: How did the NOAA Climate Outlook do in 2014-15?
Were Model Predictions of El Niño a Big Bust? (2014)
The Incredible Growth of the 2015-16 El Niño followed by the Incredible Shrinking La Niña Forecast
Posts about ENSO impacts
The long arm of the California drought
A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser
How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?
More U.S. drought in a second-year La Niña?
Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?
What about snow during La Niña winters?
How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017?
Fun with Statistics: El Niño and California Rainfall
Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
Why did it rain so much in California during last year’s La Niña?
ENSO and the Indian Monsoon… not as straightforward as you’d think
No, you can’t blame it all on El Nño
With El Niño likely, what climate impacts are favored for the summer?
Writing about La Niña, the U.S., and the Jet stream and THIS HAPPENS.
Posts about ENSO and climate change
Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models
Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2
ENSO + Climate Change = Headache
A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser
Posts previewing the winter outlook
Winter is coming: NOAA’s 2017-2018 Winter Outlook
What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2016-17 Winter Outlook
What to expect this winter: NOAA’s 2015-16 outlook reveals what conditions are favored across the US
What's in store for the United States this (2014-15) winter?
Posts with guest authors
Richard Allan: The role of the ocean in tempering global warming
Gerry Bell: Impacts of El Niño and La Niña on the hurricane season
Amy Butler: El Niño and the stratospheric polar vortex
Kim Cobb: A bittersweet victory for an El Niño chaser
Mat Collins: Climate Change and ENSO: Take 2
Eric Guilyardi: Challenges with ENSO in Today’s Climate Models
Mike Halpert: United States El Niño Impacts
Dennis Hartmann: The warm-cold split over North America
Kris Karnauskas:El Niño and the Galápagos
Phil Klotzbach: How have changing ENSO forecasts impacted Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts for 2017?
Aaron Levine: Why ENSO forecasters shouldn’t just take their ball and go home during spring
Mike McPhaden: Predicting El Niño Then and Now
Ángel Muñoz: La Niña, did you orchestrate this?
Adam Sobel: No El Niño yet, but temperatures in tropical atmosphere are already warm
Amy Solomon, Gil Compo:The El Niño Rapid Response Campaign
Andrew Watkins: El Niño from the other side of the Pacific pond
S.-Y. Simon Wang: How might El Niño affect wildfires in California?
Ken Takahashi:One forecaster’s view on extreme El Niño in the eastern Pacific
Ken Takahashi: ENSO forecasters in offices getting coffee
Michael K. Tippett and Chiara Lepore: ENSO and tornadoes
S.-Y. Simon Wang: The long arm of the California drought
Top of the month posts (forecast discussion)
2018
January 2018 La Niña update: summiting the peak
February 2018 La Niña update: tuned in
March 2018 ENSO update: come on in, the water’s fine
2017
December 2017 La Niña update: Double, double
November 2017 La Niña update: She’s back!
October 2017 ENSO update: Still watching for La Niña
September ENSO update: La Niña Watch!
August 2017 ENSO update: Extreme neutral!
July 2017 ENSO update: Holding steady
June 2017 ENSO update: pancake breakfast
April 2017 ENSO update: Conflicting signals
March 2017 ENSO update: on the fence
February 2017 ENSO update: bye-bye, La Niña!
January 2017 ENSO update: Happy New Year!
2016
December 2016 ENSO Update: Weeble wobbles
November 2016 La Niña update: Hello, lady!
Antici...pation: October 2016 ENSO forecast
September 2016 ENSO update: Cooling our heels
August 2016 ENSO update: Wavy gravy
July 2016 ENSO discussion: Enjoy neutral while it lasts!
June 2016 ENSO discussion: The new neutral
May 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: Switcheroo!
April 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: What goes up…
March 2016 El Niño update: Spring Forward
February 2016 El Niño update: Q & A…and some Thursday-morning quarterbacking
January El Niño update: It’s got a lot going on
2015
December El Niño update: phenomenal cosmic powers!
November El Niño update: It’s a small world
October 2015 El Niño update: Pumpkin spice
September 2015 El Niño Update and Q&A
August 2015 El Niño update: Supercalifragilisticexpealidocious
July 2015 El Niño update: Bruce Lee?
June El Niño update: Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead
May 2015 ENSO Forecast: Will this El Niño be an overachiever, or peaked-in-high-school?
Details on the April ENSO Forecast
March 2015 ENSO discussion: El Niño is here
Details on the February ENSO Discussion: On the edge?
January ENSO update: The little engine that couldn't quite
2014
December's ENSO Update: Close, but no cigar.
Details on the November ENSO forecast: slip-slidin’ away?
Details on the October ENSO Diagnostic Discussion: Trust, but verify.
Details on the September ENSO diagnostic discussion—late, or never?
Details on the August 7th ENSO Discussion: how has the forecast changed?
ENSO Blog
A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and their impacts.
Disclaimer:
The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (contractor to CPC), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors.
Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov.
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This is handy are you going
This is handy are you going to upgrade this every time an article is posted?
RE: This is handy are you going
We're not likely to update this after every post, as it's not automated, but we'll try to update it periodically.
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