El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

SPherical map of tropical Pacific showing the May 2021 temperature anomaly

NEUTRAL

The central tropical Pacific Ocean is in a neutral climate state and is likely to remain that way through the summer. A return to the cool, dry conditions of La Niña is slightly more likely than neutral in late fall and early winter. The chance of El Niño (warm, rainy conditions) is less than 10%.

Latest official ENSO update

Latest ENSO blog update

(image at left) Map of May 2021 sea surface temperatures compared to average showing the continued fading of La Niña's cooler-than-average temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on NOAA EVL data.

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short.

The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds.

These changes disrupt the large-scale air movements in the tropics, triggering a cascade of global side effects.

More about El Niño
What is El Niño in a nutshell?
Understanding El Niño (video)
FAQs
ENSO alert system criteria
ENSO essentials
Educational Resources on ENSO

Globes showing typical climate impacts over the U.S. during El Niño and La Niñaca

El Niño and La Niña—together called "ENSO," which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—are anchored in the tropical Pacific, but they affect climate "downstream" in the United States. In the summer, ENSO's primary influence on U.S. climate is on the hurricane season in both the eastern Pacific and the Atlantic. In winter, they influence the jet stream and the path of storms that move from the Pacific over the United States. 

Typical ENSO impacts
Winter temperature and precipitation
Hurricane season impacts
Current outlooks
6-10 day outlook
8-14 day outlook
1-month outlook
3-month outlook

El Niño and La Niña have their strongest influence on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter. During La Niña winters, the southern tier of the United States is often drier than normal. Northern Australia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are often wetter than normal. 

More information
ENSO's cascade of global impacts
The Walker Circulation
More maps of global impacts of La Niña and El Niño

Global map of sea surface temperature anomalies in May 2021

June 2021 ENSO update: neutral noodle

June 11, 2021

The ENSO forecast favors neutral conditions through the fall, but there's more to it than that!

Read more

(left) The cool conditions (blue) of La Niña were fading from the tropical Pacific in May 2021, but the marine heat wave nicknamed "The Blob" (red) re-emerged in the North Pacific. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on Geo-Polar SST data.