El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

Map of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, January 2016

A strong El Niño currently underway is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. This event has already produced significant global impacts, and it is likely to affect U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns during the upcoming months. The next official update will be on February 11.

More information
Latest official El Niño update
January 2016 ENSO blog update
ENSO Monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center

 

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short.

The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds.

These changes disrupt the large-scale air movements in the tropics, triggering a cascade of global side effects.

More about El Niño
What is El Niño in a nutshell?
Understanding El Niño (video)
FAQs
ENSO alert system criteria
ENSO essentials
Educational Resources on ENSO

El Niño makes certain seasonal patterns more likely, but not guaranteed. El Niño winters tend to be wetter and slightly cooler than average across southern states; warmer than average in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and as far east as the Great Lakes; and dry in the Ohio Valley. The location of the greatest winter tornado activity tends to be in the Southeast. 

More on this winter's outlook
Regional outlooks
What to expect this winter in the U.S.
2015-16 Winter Outlook (video)
February-April 2016 national outlook

Typical U.S impacts
Historical risk of seasonal extremes
El Niño & U.S. winter weather
Historical perspective on strong El Niños

El Niño has its strongest impact on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter & early spring. The most reliable global impacts are dryness over Indonesia and northern South America, below-average rains during the Indian Monsoon, and excess rainfall in southeastern South America, eastern Africa near the equator, and across the southern U.S.

Hurricane activity is often suppressed in the Atlantic and amplified in the eastern North Pacific. The risk of coral bleaching increases, and populations of marine plants in the eastern tropical Pacific (and the animals that depend on them) sometimes crash.

More information
ENSO's cascade of global impacts
The Walker Circulation

Scatterplot of sea surface temperatures in El Niño years and the year following

Will La Niña follow El Niño? What the past tells us

How likely is a La Niña the year after an El Niño, and in particular after a strong one like this year's? IRI's Tony Barnston analyzes the history of ENSO behavior since 1950 for a possible answer.

read more

Regional & Local Impacts

Events & Announcements

NOAA National Weather Service Daily Briefing
Daily
Briefing page with forecasts, discussions, maps, assessments, and severe weather outlooks for today’s developing weather patterns across the United States.

NOAA Monthly Climate Briefing for Media
Thursday, February 18, at 11 am EST
Teleconference for public media on past month’s weather & climate conditions for the U.S. & globe, an update on El Niño, and NOAA’s 3-month climate outlook.

Western Region
California Winter Status Update
January 26, 4 - 6 pm EST

Stakeholder Briefing: Western Impacts of El Niño
October 19, 2015
Expert-led public webinar on emerging strong El Niño conditions, typical regional impacts on temperature & precipitation, and the 2015-16 winter outlook.