El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

 

Ocean temperatures at the surface of the tropical Pacific are warm enough to meet the ocean threshold for El Niño, but the atmosphere still hasn't reacted. According to the latest forecast, ENSO-neutral remains the most likely (50 to ~55% chance) outcome through Northern Hemisphere fall 2017.

More ENSO status information
Latest official ENSO update
Latest ENSO blog update
ENSO Monitoring at the Climate Prediction Center

 

El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short.

The pattern can shift back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, and each phase triggers predictable disruptions of temperature, precipitation, and winds.

These changes disrupt the large-scale air movements in the tropics, triggering a cascade of global side effects.

More about El Niño
What is El Niño in a nutshell?
Understanding El Niño (video)
FAQs
ENSO alert system criteria
ENSO essentials
Educational Resources on ENSO

By modifying the Pacific jet streams, El Niño can affect seasonal temperature and precipitation across the United States, mostly in the winter. 

This map shows typical impacts of El Niñ on U.S. winter weather. These impacts have been associated with El Niño events in the past, but “associated with” doesn’t mean that all of these impacts happen during every El Niño episode. 

Typical U.S El Niño impacts
Winter temperature and precipitation
Hurricane season impacts
Coral Bleaching

Current outlooks
6-10 day outlook
8-14 day outlook
1-month outlook
3-month outlook

El Niño and La Niña have their strongest impact on global climate during the Northern Hemisphere winter & early spring. But in the tropics especially, some effects are felt in summer. The map at left shows typical June-August rainfall and temperature patterns during El Niño. However, it's important to remember that we may not see all impacts during every event. NOAA Climate.gov map.

More information
ENSO's cascade of global impacts
The Walker Circulation
More mps of global impacts of La Niña and El Niño

June 2017 OLR anomalies

July 2017 ENSO update: Holding steady

July 13, 2017

Our newest ENSO blogger, GFDL's Nat Johnson, tackles the latest scoop on what ENSO is doing.

(map) The location of clouds and rainfall in the tropical Pacific in June 2017—enhanced in the far west and suppressed in the central basin—is the opposite of what's typical for El Niño.

Regional & Local Impacts

Events & Announcements

NOAA National Weather Service Daily Briefing
Daily
Briefing page with forecasts, discussions, maps, assessments, and severe weather outlooks for today’s developing weather patterns across the United States.

El Nino: What's Next?
February 18, 11 am CT
Hosted by SCIPP

NOAA Monthly Climate Briefing for Media
Thursday, February 18, at 11 am EST
Teleconference for public media on past month’s weather & climate conditions for the U.S. & globe, an update on El Niño, and NOAA’s 3-month climate outlook.

Western Region
California Winter Status Update
January 26, 4 - 6 pm EST