January 16, 2015

Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.

December 19, 2014

A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?

December 10, 2014

If we look only at rainfall changes, and not ocean temperatures, can we get a clearer picture of how climate change will influence ENSO? Guest blogger Mat Collins from University of Exeter explains what recent studies have to say.

November 26, 2014

An El Niño means lots of rain for California, correct? Well, some of the time, but not always.

November 13, 2014

How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.*

**OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.  

October 23, 2014

How can warming at Earth’s surface have slowed when energy accumulation is growing? The role of our oceans—including ENSO—is key.

October 16, 2014

How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream.  Seriously.

September 11, 2014

If you are someone who wants more or stronger ENSO events in the future, I have great news for you–research supports that. If you are someone who wants fewer or weaker ENSO events in the future, don’t worry–research supports that too.

sea-surface height from satellite data
September 4, 2014

Forecasters are still calling for a 65% chance of El Nino conditions being met in the next few months. Isn't this late for the start of an ENSO event? 

2003 CA fire
August 27, 2014

El Niño could bring increased rain to California. How might this affect the threat of wildfire?