July 7, 2015

“El Niño is Strong!” “No, it’s Moderate!” “But the [insert your favorite ENSO indicator here] is the largest it’s been since the El Niño of 1997-98!”

June 25, 2015

...but it's still a seasonal forecaster's best friend.

June 11, 2015

There’s a very high probability that El Niño will continue through the fall and early winter, and it could become a strong event.

June 4, 2015

Everyone's asking if the arrival of El Niño guarantees that 2015 will set a new record for warmest global temperature. In his latest blog, Deke Arndt explains why it's possible--maybe even likely--but not guaranteed.

reason for the spring barrier
April 30, 2015

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

April 24, 2015

ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?

March 9, 2015

Guest blogger Dennis Hartmann makes the case that warm waters in the western tropical Pacific—part of the North Pacific Mode climate pattern—are behind the weird U.S. winter weather of the past two seasons.

February 27, 2015

How do we verify forecasts that use probabilities? Read on to find out.

January 29, 2015

ENSO blogger Tony Barnston explains why climate forecasters can't get by with just a single indicator for predicting El Niño and La Niña.

January 22, 2015

The tropical Pacific Ocean sloshes around like water in your bathtub.  These waves are as important as the vortex of water that spirals down the drain.  

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