“El Niño is Strong!” “No, it’s Moderate!” “But the [insert your favorite ENSO indicator here] is the largest it’s been since the El Niño of 1997-98!”

...but it's still a seasonal forecaster's best friend.

There’s a very high probability that El Niño will continue through the fall and early winter, and it could become a strong event.

Everyone's asking if the arrival of El Niño guarantees that 2015 will set a new record for warmest global temperature. In his latest blog, Deke Arndt explains why it's possible--maybe even likely--but not guaranteed.

reason for the spring barrier

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?

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