A new paper looked at 20 years work of real-time ENSO Model forecasts and found some interesting patterns. Did you know models found it pretty freaking hard to predict the onset of La Nina events?
Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring?
ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?
The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby. A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions.