ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?
The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby. A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions.
After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.
How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.* **OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.
How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream. Seriously.
Where is El Niño? How is this year different from 2012 when El Niño was predicted, but never arrived?
The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?
The Signal and the Noise is often mentioned in reference to ENSO forecasting and not just in reference to Nate Silver’s bestselling book. In fact, understanding what is signal and what is noise is critical to interpreting predictions from models and climate science in general.