The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion just came out. Sea surface temperatures are solidly above average in the equatorial Pacific... so what's behind forecasters' decision not to declare El Niño conditions?
An El Niño means lots of rain for California, correct? Well, some of the time, but not always.
After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.
How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.* **OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.
What's behind the drop in probabilities this month? And why might forecasting this event be particularly tricky?
Although ENSO forecasting using past case analogs is fun, even slight dissimilarities between the past cases and the present case are certain to mess up the forecast.