Using a combination of observations and models, NOAA-funded scientists have found a small but significant “advanced warning” signal for heightened summer tornado activity in the U.S.: warmer-than-average water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico
For New Englanders, the saying “as American as apple pie” may as well be “as New England as lobster,” but warming sea surface temperatures from climate change are forcing populations of the American lobster to higher latitudes than ever before—and upending fishing communities on the New England coast.
Globally, 2015 set a new record for the most extremely warm days in the 66-year record (1.8 times more than the average). The number of extremely warm days and nights was the highest ever recorded in western North America, parts of central Europe, and central Asia.
Currently, the risk of regional-scale tornado outbreaks is predictable only about 7 days in advance. But NOAA scientists report that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific may provide a month or more of advance warning of an elevated risk for tornado outbreaks.