ENSO_NMME_plume_graph_20220512.png

The range of forecasts for departures from average temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific in 2022 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). The average of all forecasts (black line) is below the La Niña threshold. Sixty-eight percent of the forecasts (dark gray shading) are for neutral or La Niña temperatures. Ninety-five percent (light gray shading) are below El Niño temperatures. NOAA Climate.gov image from University of Miami data.