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File: ENSO_WinterOutlook_verification_temperature_2022.png

Red areas on both maps side by side reflect forecast (left) and observed (right) above-average temperatures. Blue areas reflect forecast (left) and observed (right) below-average temperatures.  Much of the US was forecast for above-average winter 2021-2022 temperatures, with areas in the south/southeast and Mid-atlantic observing that.

Image caption

(left) Temperature forecast for December-February 2021-22, made in mid-November. The colors show the forecast category with the highest probability. White areas are where all three outcomes (warm, cool, or average) were equally likely (each had a 33.3% chance of happening). (right) Observed temperature category for December-February 2021-22. Climate.gov image based on CPC data.