A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?
If we look only at rainfall changes, and not ocean temperatures, can we get a clearer picture of how climate change will influence ENSO? Guest blogger Mat Collins from University of Exeter explains what recent studies have to say.
The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion just came out. Sea surface temperatures are solidly above average in the equatorial Pacific... so what's behind forecasters' decision not to declare El Niño conditions?