Through June, the eastern Pacific was warmer than average, but the lack of a strong gradient in sea surface temperature anomalies between the eastern and western Pacific may have kept the atmosphere from getting in sync with the developing El Niño.
A pool of warm water lurking beneath the surface of the western Pacific has been slowly sloshing eastward in the past few months. This traveling wave of warm water is one of the signs that climate conditions are favorable for the emergence of El Niño later this year.
We’d like our forecasts—both weather and climate—to be simple and certain. Because of the fluid and chaotic nature of the ocean and atmosphere, however, forecasts are never about certainty: they’re about probability.
An open-source suite of tools developed specifically for farmers and ranchers in the southeastern U.S. Tools available can help growers plan for certain types of crop disease, crop yields, climate and drought risks, growing degree days, greenhouse gas emissions, and water usage.