...but it's still a seasonal forecaster's best friend.

There’s a very high probability that El Niño will continue through the fall and early winter, and it could become a strong event.

Everyone's asking if the arrival of El Niño guarantees that 2015 will set a new record for warmest global temperature. In his latest blog, Deke Arndt explains why it's possible--maybe even likely--but not guaranteed.

reason for the spring barrier

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

ENSO is a complicated thing to model. What are the challenges, and how can we overcome them?

Guest blogger Dennis Hartmann makes the case that warm waters in the western tropical Pacific—part of the North Pacific Mode climate pattern—are behind the weird U.S. winter weather of the past two seasons.

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