Guest blogger Dennis Hartmann makes the case that warm waters in the western tropical Pacific—part of the North Pacific Mode climate pattern—are behind the weird U.S. winter weather of the past two seasons.

How do we verify forecasts that use probabilities? Read on to find out.

ENSO blogger Tony Barnston explains why climate forecasters can't get by with just a single indicator for predicting El Niño and La Niña.

The tropical Pacific Ocean sloshes around like water in your bathtub.  These waves are as important as the vortex of water that spirals down the drain.  

Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.

A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?

If we look only at rainfall changes, and not ocean temperatures, can we get a clearer picture of how climate change will influence ENSO? Guest blogger Mat Collins from University of Exeter explains what recent studies have to say.

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