Predicted (left column) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and (right column) precipitation anomalies for December-February 2023-24 from the SMYLE forecast system (see footnotes for details). The top row shows the forecast with all factors included (SST trends, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, El Niño), the middle row shows the part of the forecast related to El Niño-only (no SST trend and GHG held at 1979 levels), and the bottom row shows the portion of the forecast attributable to the influence of the SST trend + emissions. In the SST panels, red shading indicates above-average SSTs and blue shading shows below-average SSTs. In the precipitation panels, green shading is above-average precipitation and brown shading indicates below-average precipitation. Anomalies relative to the 1979-2019 average. Figure credit: Adam Phillips, NCAR, with modifications by climate.gov.