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(left) The difference between the North American Multi-Model Ensemble average precipitation forecast for this winter (Dec – Feb 2023-2024) and the pattern of precipitation we'd expect for this past winter based on past El Niño winters from 1952-2022. (right) The difference between the observed precipitation pattern for this past winter and the pattern we’d expect based on past El Niño winters. The matching dry signal over the south-central U.S. and Mexico suggests that these drier conditions may have been predictable more than a season in advance. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on analysis by Nat Johnson.