map_4-panel_dfj_corrected.png

(top, left to right) The precipitation forecast for this coming winter (Dec-Feb 2023-24) based on the average of all the individual models in the North American Multi-model Ensemble forecast system. The geographic pattern of precipitation we'd expect based on averaging past El Niño winters from 1952-2022. (bottom, left to right) An individual model forecast that is a reasonably good match to the expected pattern. An individual model forecast that deviates significantly from the typical pattern. NOAA Climate.gov image, based on analysis by Nat Johnson.