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Correlations (pattern match "scores") between forecasts from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) and observed precipitation for all winters (Dec-Feb) from 1983-2022. Each column shows scores for individual models (small gray dot) and the score for the ensemble average (dark gray dot). Instead of being arranged chronologically, winters are placed from left to right based on the strength of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical Pacific Niño-3.4 region that winter. Sorting this way shows the overall linear pattern: forecast scores get better (closer to 1, a perfect match) the stronger the La Niña or El Niño. NOAA Climate.gov figure, based on analysis by Nat Johnson.