Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring?
You're not the only one wondering if we will see El Niño grow or continue into this coming winter 2015. How useful are March winds and subsurface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean in predicting winter El Niño or La Niña states?
The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby. A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions.