Browse by Month

  • June 2014 SST anomalies
    July 25, 2014

    Why hasn't El Niño been declared yet?  The answer might lie in the gradients of sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean.  

  • July 15, 2014

    It's not all about ENSO: other important climate patterns impact the United States during the Northern Hemisphere winter season, too.

  • July 10, 2014

    Sea surface temperatures are up. So why haven't forecasters declared El Niño conditions? 

  • July 1, 2014

    One of ENSO’s most important influences is to the Indian Monsoon—the large-scale circulation pattern that brings the Indian subcontinent the vast majority of its yearly rainfall. And while La Niñas tend to increase monsoon rainfall, the monsoon’s relationship with El Niño can be a little more complicated.  

  • June 24, 2014

    The Signal and the Noise is often mentioned in reference to ENSO forecasting and not just in reference to Nate Silver’s bestselling book.  In fact, understanding what is signal and what is noise is critical to interpreting predictions from models and climate science in general.  



  • June 19, 2014

     We’d like our forecasts—both weather and climate—to be simple and certain. Because of the fluid and chaotic nature of the ocean and atmosphere, however, forecasts are never about certainty: they’re about probability.

  • June 12, 2014

    How does El Niño affect U.S. winter temperature and precipitation?

  • June 5, 2014

    Chances that an El Niño will occur by summer are above 70%, hitting 80% by the fall. But subsurface temperature anomalies have tapered off some from earlier this spring, decreasing the odds the event will be as strong as the El Niño of 1997-98.

  • May 30, 2014

    El Niño typically favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin. Where does that leave the 2014 hurricane outlook?

  • May 27, 2014

    If the climate conditions that indicate ENSO are best measured as seasonal averages, will scientists wait for conditions to persist three months before declaring El Niño underway?