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Natural Climate Patterns
Department:December 5, 2014From Hawaii to the Florida Keys, the surprising intensity of coral heat stress in 2014 has scientists wondering what to expect in 2015, when El Niño is forecasted to finally develop.
Department:December 4, 2014The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion just came out. Sea surface temperatures are solidly above average in the equatorial Pacific... so what's behind forecasters' decision not to declare El Niño conditions?
Department:December 3, 2014(video) Alabama grower Myron Johnson talks about how learning to use seasonal outlooks for rain and temperature has made his operation more resilient to swings in climate, including those triggered by El Niño.
Department:November 13, 2014How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.*
**OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.
Department:November 6, 2014What's behind the drop in probabilities this month? And why might forecasting this event be particularly tricky?
Department:October 24, 2014We're nine laps into the race to set a new global annual temperature record. NOAA climate scientist Deke Arndt talks about how this year's race might end--and why yearly rankings tell us less about the big picture of climate change than we might think.
Department:October 23, 2014How can warming at Earth’s surface have slowed when energy accumulation is growing? The role of our oceans—including ENSO—is key.
Department:October 16, 2014How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream. Seriously.
Department:October 9, 2014The forecast seems stuck on repeat. Why are we still calling for El Niño?
Department:October 2, 2014Last September’s widespread flooding in northeast Colorado, which saw just over 17 inches of rain in one week in the city of Boulder, was not made more likely or more intense by the influence of human-induced climate change on atmospheric moisture.
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