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Natural Climate Patterns
Department:February 11, 2015For more than 6 months, NOAA has been issuing El Niño watches, but never an advisory. Here we show whether recent patterns in precipitation resemble those expected during El Niño.
Department:February 11, 2015Millions of people in southern Africa depend on monsoon rains that begin around November and last until March or April. If the monsoon is erratic, millions of people can suffer. So far in 2014-2015, the monsoon in southeastern Africa has been anything but normal.
Department:February 5, 2015At the beginning of February, the atmosphere was looking a little bit like El Niño. Is this just another rolling stone?
Department:January 29, 2015ENSO blogger Tony Barnston explains why climate forecasters can't get by with just a single indicator for predicting El Niño and La Niña.
Department:January 29, 2015Devastating floods across Malaysia and Thailand in late December and mid-January bear the hallmarks of an enhanced MJO climate pattern superimposed on the seasonal monsoon.
Department:January 23, 2015During the second half of December and the beginning of January, places from Sri Lanka to northwest Australia experienced exceptionally heavy rains, flash floods, and landslides.
Department:January 22, 2015The tropical Pacific Ocean sloshes around like water in your bathtub. These waves are as important as the vortex of water that spirals down the drain.
Department:January 16, 2015Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.
Department:December 31, 2014Several times a year the MJO contributes to various extreme events in the United States, including Arctic air outbreaks during winter across the central and eastern portions of the country.
Department:December 19, 2014A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?
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