Fall 2011 Drought Outlook


On September 1, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued an updated fall drought outlook for September through November 2011. Shown in the map above, the outlook provided little hope that the extreme and exceptional drought that has parched much of the southern United States throughout the summer would weaken significantly. Drought is expected to persist and expand from the Southwest eastward into the interior Southeast by the end of November.

Reddish-brown indicates areas where drought is likely to persist or worsen. Areas of tan indicate where drought is likely to persist but see some improvement, and darker green indicates areas where drought is likely to improve and its impacts ease. Light green indicates places where drought conditions are likely to develop.

The NOAA seasonal drought outlooks are based on numerous climate and weather indicators, including the official precipitation outlooks, various medium- and short-range forecasts, soil moisture tools, and climatology statistics.

For more on dry conditions in summer 2011, see Drought in the Southern United States.