PMM SST Anomoly (480 px)
November 23, 2016

Are sea surface temperatures located north of the equator important for El Niño or La Niña development?  Yes!  Introducing the Pacific Meridional Mode.  

NMME ENSO forecast
September 22, 2016

Because why go to the movies when you come to Climate.gov and watch the evolution of ENSO forecasts over the past two years?

June 16, 2016

For much of the country, summer temperatures are somewhat sensitive to late-spring precipitation. It turns out that summer afternoons are way, way more sensitive than summer nights.

April 28, 2016

Guest blogger Amy Butler explains how changes in the stratospheric polar vortex can influence the "usual" effects of El Niño on the climate in the Northern Hemisphere.

February 24, 2016

Where are my El Niño impacts?!

January 8, 2016

Was El Niño to blame for the above-average temperatures during November and December 2015?  As always, the answer is not that simple.  

July 7, 2015

“El Niño is Strong!” “No, it’s Moderate!” “But the [insert your favorite ENSO indicator here] is the largest it’s been since the El Niño of 1997-98!”

reason for the spring barrier
April 30, 2015

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

March 25, 2015

You're not the only one wondering if we will see El Niño grow or continue into this coming winter 2015.  How useful are March winds and subsurface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean in predicting winter El Niño or La Niña states?  

ENSO model forecasts thumbnail
February 19, 2015

The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby.  A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions. 

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