February 24, 2016

Where are my El Niño impacts?!

January 8, 2016

Was El Niño to blame for the above-average temperatures during November and December 2015?  As always, the answer is not that simple.  

July 7, 2015

“El Niño is Strong!” “No, it’s Moderate!” “But the [insert your favorite ENSO indicator here] is the largest it’s been since the El Niño of 1997-98!”

reason for the spring barrier
April 30, 2015

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

March 25, 2015

You're not the only one wondering if we will see El Niño grow or continue into this coming winter 2015.  How useful are March winds and subsurface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean in predicting winter El Niño or La Niña states?  

ENSO model forecasts thumbnail
February 19, 2015

The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby.  A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions. 

December 19, 2014

A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?

November 26, 2014

An El Niño means lots of rain for California, correct? Well, some of the time, but not always.

October 16, 2014

How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream.  Seriously.

June 2009 SST anomalies
September 19, 2014

As of late August 2014, tropical atmospheric temperatures appear to be responding more strongly to the ocean than they typically do at this early stage of El Niño development.   

Pages