reason for the spring barrier

Why is it so difficult to make a good ENSO prediction during the Northern Hemisphere spring? 

You're not the only one wondering if we will see El Niño grow or continue into this coming winter 2015.  How useful are March winds and subsurface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean in predicting winter El Niño or La Niña states?  

ENSO model forecasts thumbnail

The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby.  A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions. 

A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?

An El Niño means lots of rain for California, correct? Well, some of the time, but not always.

How El Niño is like different flavors of ice cream.  Seriously.

June 2009 SST anomalies

As of late August 2014, tropical atmospheric temperatures appear to be responding more strongly to the ocean than they typically do at this early stage of El Niño development.   

Along with ENSO, what other climate patterns might be useful for predicting temperatures and precipitation in the United States?

OLR anomalies in 2012 versus 2014

Where is El Niño?  How is this year different from 2012 when El Niño was predicted, but never arrived?  

June 2014 SST anomalies

Why hasn't El Niño been declared yet?  The answer might lie in the gradients of sea surface temperatures across the tropical Pacific Ocean.  

Pages