This video shows 15 years of data obtained via Polar-orbiting satellites that are able to detect subtle differences in ocean color, allowing scientists to see where there are higher concentrations of phytoplankton - a proxy for the concentration of chlorophyll in the ocean.

July 10, 2014

Sea surface temperatures are up. So why haven't forecasters declared El Niño conditions? 

July 1, 2014

One of ENSO’s most important influences is to the Indian Monsoon—the large-scale circulation pattern that brings the Indian subcontinent the vast majority of its yearly rainfall. And while La Niñas tend to increase monsoon rainfall, the monsoon’s relationship with El Niño can be a little more complicated.  

June 24, 2014

The Signal and the Noise is often mentioned in reference to ENSO forecasting and not just in reference to Nate Silver’s bestselling book.  In fact, understanding what is signal and what is noise is critical to interpreting predictions from models and climate science in general.  

 

 

June 19, 2014

 We’d like our forecasts—both weather and climate—to be simple and certain. Because of the fluid and chaotic nature of the ocean and atmosphere, however, forecasts are never about certainty: they’re about probability.

June 12, 2014

How does El Niño affect U.S. winter temperature and precipitation?

June 5, 2014

Chances that an El Niño will occur by summer are above 70%, hitting 80% by the fall. But subsurface temperature anomalies have tapered off some from earlier this spring, decreasing the odds the event will be as strong as the El Niño of 1997-98.

May 30, 2014

El Niño typically favors stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, and suppresses it in the Atlantic basin. Where does that leave the 2014 hurricane outlook?

May 27, 2014

If the climate conditions that indicate ENSO are best measured as seasonal averages, will scientists wait for conditions to persist three months before declaring El Niño underway?

May 19, 2014

ENSO arises from changes across the tropical Pacific Ocean. So why does ENSO affect the climate over sizable portions of the globe, including some regions far removed from the tropical Pacific Ocean?

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