CFSv2 ensemble forecast Nino3.4 sea-surface temperature
August 6, 2014

The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?

The figure summarizes some of the key variations amongst the six illustrative scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in considering possible future emissions of greenhouse gases during the 21st century.

This interactive shows the impact of a changing climate on maple syrup sap production. Students can explore the changes in production under two different emissions scenarios.

In this activity, students explore the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide over the past 40 years with an interactive online model. They use the model and observations to estimate present emission rates and emission growth rates. The model is then used to estimate future levels of carbon dioxide using different future emission scenarios. These different scenarios are then linked by students to climate model predictions also used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

In this activity, students examine global climate model output and consider the potential impact of global warming on tropical cyclone initiation and evolution. As a follow-up, students read two short articles on the connection between hurricanes and global warming and discuss these articles in context of what they have learned from model output.

This interactive National Weather Service interactive visualization includes outlook maps for 6-10 day, 8-14 day, 1 month, and 3 month temperature and precipitation patterns in the US, as well as a hazards outlook and drought information.

This in-depth interactive slideshow about how climate models work is embedded with a lot of background information. It also describes some of the projected climate change impacts to key sectors such as water, ecosystems, food, coasts, health. (scroll down page for interactive)

This simulation provides scenarios for exploring the principles of climate dynamics from a multi-disciplinary perspective. Inter-connections among climate issues, public stakeholders and the governance spheres are investigated through creative simulations designed to support learners' understanding of international climate change negotiations.

One of a suite of online climate interactive simulations, this Greenhouse Gas Simulator uses the bathtub model to demonstrate how atmospheric concentrations of CO2 will continue to rise unless they are lowered to match the amount of CO2 that can be removed through natural processes.

This long classroom activity introduces students to a climate modeling software. Students visualize how temperature and snow coverage might change over the next 100 years. They run a 'climate simulation' to establish a baseline for comparison, do a 'experimental' simulation and compare the results. Students will then choose a region of their own interest to explore and compare the results with those documented in the IPCC impact reports. Students will gain a greater understanding and appreciation of the process and power of climate modeling.

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