Although ENSO forecasting using past case analogs is fun, even slight dissimilarities between the past cases and the present case are certain to mess up the forecast.
El Niño could bring increased rain to California. How might this affect the threat of wildfire?
Along with ENSO, what other climate patterns might be useful for predicting temperatures and precipitation in the United States?
Where is El Niño? How is this year different from 2012 when El Niño was predicted, but never arrived?
The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?
How do changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean impact places much farther away? The answer for the tropics, at least, lies in changes to the equator-wide atmospheric circulation called the Walker Circulation.