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September 2022 La Niña update: it’s Q & A time

Ocean and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña—the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern—currently reigns in the tropical Pacific. It’s looking very likely that the long-predicted third consecutive La Niña winter will happen, with a 91% chance of La Niña through September–November and an 80% chance through the early winter (November–January).

91%! That’s very high. Why so confident?

The first reason is that La Niña is already clearly in force in the tropical Pacific. The August sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, our primary location for ENSO monitoring, was about 1.0 °C (1.8 °F) cooler than the long-term average, according to ERSSTv5, our favorite dataset for sea surface temperature. (“Long-term” is currently 1991–2020.) This is substantially cooler than the La Niña threshold of 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) below average.

Animation of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature 2022

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean from mid-June through early September 2022 compared to the long-term average. East of the International Dateline (180˚), waters remained cooler than average, a sign of La Niña. Graphic by Climate.gov, based on data from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab. Description of historical baseline period here.

La Niña’s characteristic tropical atmospheric response—more rain and clouds over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and stronger-than-average winds both aloft and near the surface—was also clearly active in August. Taken together, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña is solidly in place. Once active, La Niña conditions are reinforced by feedback processes between the ocean and atmosphere. Read more about those feedbacks here.

La Nina conditions

During La Niña, the surface trade winds (small gray arrows) blow more strongly than normal, piling up warm surface water in the western Pacific and drawing up deep, cool water in the eastern Pacific.  Over the warm waters, the air becomes more buoyant (upward thick arrow), and rainfall increases. Over the cool waters, it is less buoyant, favoring subsidence (downward gray arrow) and less rainfall. These feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere strengthen the La Niña event. Climate.gov schematic by Emily Eng and inspired by NOAA PMEL.

What else is providing confidence in the forecast?

There is a substantial amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface of the eastern-central tropical Pacific. This subsurface water will provide a source of cooler water to the surface over the next couple of months. Also, the computer climate model consensus predicts that La Niña will continue into the winter.

How long will La Niña last?

While there’s high agreement through the winter, there is a lot of uncertainty about how long this La Niña will last and when we will see a transition to neutral conditions. Current forecaster consensus gives La Niña the edge through January–March (54%), with a 56% chance of neutral for the February–April period.

Bar chart of El Niño, La Niña, and neutral probabilities from Climate Prediction Center

NOAA Climate Prediction Center forecast for each of the three possible ENSO categories for the next 8 overlapping 3-month seasons. Blue bars show the chances of La Niña, gray bars the chances for neutral, and red bars the chances for El Niño. Graph by Michelle L'Heureux.

When have previous La Niñas transitioned to neutral?

There are 24 La Niña winters in our historical record, which dates back to 1950. Of those, only one (2016–17) changed to neutral in December–February. Four transitioned to neutral in January–March, one (2000–01) by February–April, two by March–May, and 16 in April–June or later. Especially when you’re slicing and dicing a relatively short record, it’s tough to find truly analogous events. For example, this will be only the third La Niña three-peat on record, and the first not to follow a strong El Niño event.

Line graph of Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature

Three-year history of sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the tropical Pacific for the 8 existing double-dip La Niña events (gray lines) and the current event (purple line). Of all the previous 7 events, 2 went on to La Niña in their third year (below the blue dashed line), 2 went on to be at or near El Niño levels (above the red dashed line) and three were neutral. Graph is based on monthly Niño-3.4 index data from CPC using ERSSTv5. Created by Michelle L’Heureux.

All this is to say that past La Niñas aren’t providing much guidance on how long we can expect this event to last. The current forecaster estimate, which favors an earlier than typical transition to neutral, is based on computer model guidance.

Remind me why I should care about La Niña…?

I admit, as scientists, we sometimes get wrapped up in how interesting the inner workings of El Niño and La Niña are! But ENSO has some serious practical applications. In a nutshell, La Niña and El Niño affect global atmospheric circulation patterns in (somewhat) predictable patterns, altering jet streams and storm tracks around the world and influencing temperature, rain/snow, and tropical cyclone seasons. Since we can predict ENSO months in advance, we can get an early picture of potential upcoming climate patterns. Of course, nothing is guaranteed with weather and climate—ENSO merely “tilts the odds” toward certain patterns. For more on how ENSO affects climate patterns, as well as why it's so difficult to make specific predictions, check out Michelle’s post here.

Can I have some examples of how La Niña can affect North American weather?

Yes! Here’s a map, followed by a list of some specifics.

Map of North America showing position of jet stream and climate impacts during La Niña winters

During La Niña, the Pacific jet stream often meanders high into the North Pacific. Southern and interior Alaska and the Pacific Northwest tend to be cooler and wetter than average, and the southern tier of U.S. states—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be warmer and drier than average. Farther north, the Ohio and Upper Mississippi River Valleys may be wetter than usual. Climate.gov image.

What about global impacts?

Global ENSO impacts

Temperature and precipitation patterns that are typical of La Niña during (top) Northern Hemisphere winters and (bottom) summers. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals from the Climate Prediction Center. Larger images and maps for El Niño are available in this post.

That’s enough for now! Thanks!

Anytime! See you next month.

Comments

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We are really concerned in California with the potential for another year of drought. The only real difference from last month is with the latest NMME 3.4 plot that came out early this week. NMME has scaled back 3.4 temps back to -1 from earlier runs whish showed a bit  stronger La Nina temps around -1.3. This falls in line with the CFSv2 PDF corrected numbers. The ECMWF is forecasting a moderate El Nino next summer/fall although that is in the way too far to believe category although I would bet my money on that over a La Nina finally looks dead after this winter. Looks like the cold pool below the equator is continuing to dissipate over the coming months despite La Nina.

Submitted by Bob on Thu, 09/08/2022 - 14:29

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Too early to say what will happen next winter. One model is already forecasting a moderate El Nino next year. No confidence in that yet prior to the Spring Predictibility Barrier yet but prepare yourself for an El Nino soon. It is most likely coming in the next couple of years. 

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I do not see any benefit to South Texas from a La Niña.  The humidity is vastly higher, and the heat index rises about 10 degrees.  So, an example, if it is 90 in Texas, it is actually 100 degrees.  In addition, we have had quite a few high pressure systems.  More heat.  Not happy about that at all.  La Niña can get to packing.

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While some are saying "I hope El Niño never comes back" please have some consideration for other parts of the country.

We live in a very very dry forest in California.  An El Niño winter would help a lot with the wildfire risks.

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Sometimes El Nino and La Nina impacts can lead to benefits in parts of the US.  A common example is that heating bills tend to be lower with El Nino in the northern contiguous U.S. b/c El Ninos are often associated with above-average winter temperatures. This is why we we convey El Nino and La Nina "Advisories."  If it meant bad impacts for everyone then we would probably use another word like "La Nina Warning."  

Submitted by michelle.lheureux on Sat, 10/01/2022 - 11:57

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Seems there is something brewing in the Pacific and changes are coming. There sure is alot of warm water built up in the western Tropical Pacific. Would not be surprised to see an El Nino over the next winter or the one following. 

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I come from Jordan and we share one thing in common , that is forecast drought . All mediterranean-like climate regions ( Chile, Southwest Australia, Cape Town and Cape Canaveral, and California ) had been forecast to worsened drought this winter , but you may will find that Australian western provinces had hit above median precipitation thus by far, with few dry spots here and there  . Likewise for Chile and other south hemisphere  mediterranean climate spots .  This is an intuition from me and do not take it as infallible : probably because the computers used for forecasting do Not have sufficient historical data with similar analogous years they err with greater margin for now, especially we're transitioning through autumn with much weather variability .  

Submitted by Mohammad Al-khateeb on Fri, 09/09/2022 - 16:33

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Every article I’ve read says there have been three three-peats in the last 70 years but none state which years. It’d be interesting to know how the third year of La Niña shook out in the past. 

Submitted by Brian Allison on Thu, 10/27/2022 - 10:24

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There have been two prior three peats.  The third winter of this past two events was 1975-76 and 2000-2001.  If you're curious what happened over the US for those events this blog post from last year has historical maps from past La Ninas.  As you can see, the impacts can be very different, so there really isn't evidence that we should expect anything different from a La Nina winter.  

Submitted by michelle.lheureux on Thu, 10/27/2022 - 12:36

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Good question. And a question I'm not sure has a great answer yet. This goes along with questions regarding why this hurricane season in the Atlantic has not been that active even with a La Nina.

The simplest answer is that a correlation does not mean that during every single La Nina will we observe an increase in activity. There is a lot of variability.

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Thanks for the updates . 

Regarding the analogy years analysis, the years 1975, 2011, 2008, 1956 and winter 1976 appear to have similar patterns of ENSO and the combination of other climatic combinations . Trying to do an snalog forecast yesterday I found it was helpful to dismiss the idea that we're through ab three consecutive LaNina because there are few triplet consecutive LaNinas, the autumn 1975 and it's ENSO transition into winter 1975 was coming to the surface with each analog models I proposed. So why don't we just dismiss the idea of three run LaNinas and focus on the transition by its natural course especially neutral and Nino conditions appear to be imminent . Heat waves in the northern Hemisphere this year may have latent effect to unleash in the coming two months . 

Thank you again for your great efforts. 

Warmest Jordanian Regards 

Mohammad 

Submitted by Mohammad Alkhateeb on Fri, 09/09/2022 - 14:54

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Forecasters aren't just using analogs to forecast so just because it is a triple La Nina does not mean that forecasters are using a sample size of 2 to guide the forecast. Models are used considerably.

Submitted by tom.diliberto on Mon, 09/12/2022 - 14:05

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Hi Tom . It is one single season, many . so the sample size is adequate . Talking about a season the data matrix becomes bigger because the outlook is longuitidinal  and equals the number of seasons multiplied by the months or weeks . Three years denote 18 monthly data points , four years denote 24 monthly data points . I agree  however a single season isn't enough to extrapolate /make surmising . 

Best Regards

Mohamed 

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Can you explain why the current conditions in Southern California do not mimic past La Niña events? Usually the hurricane season is decreased or nonexistent in La Niña events. Also, the last time one traveled this far north was the El Niño of 97/98. What does this warming tell us? 

Submitted by Chris on Sat, 09/10/2022 - 22:34

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I am curious to understand if the Gulf Stream is slowing (or has been slowed down) because of the very persistent and stable North Atlantic Ridge of High Pressure reaching from roughly Iceland, UK to Norway, generating an Easterly wind across the Atlantic for months on end!

regards

Submitted by Casper Kaars S… on Sun, 09/11/2022 - 08:28

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Funny this time last year you predicted La Niña would be gone by spring then gone by summer. Yet here we are. First august to not have US land falling TS or hurricane since 1997. All the while predicting above average land falling systems. 2020 for instance in the SE US had a terribly stormy tornadic spring followed by so many TS’s we had to use the Greek alphabet. Not until La Niña kicked in (from a enso neutral pattern) strong, did they stop at the end of October. 
Can’t predict Mother Nature. You can only guess. The only thing scary about a La Niña winter is a tornado event like December  2021 that ravaged mayfield Ky and many other states. I’m ready for a real winter for the United States SE as it’s been years since we’ve had any significant cold. 

Submitted by Ann on Sun, 09/11/2022 - 21:10

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Hi guys, fantastic work as always, thank you!

I was wondering if there are any forecasts/signs that the MOJ might, at any point in the coming months, enhance rainfall in Colombia due to “constructive interference”. Is there any way one would be able to track/monitor that?

Thanks!

Submitted by Alvaro on Wed, 09/14/2022 - 12:20

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Thanks! MJO forecasts extend out a couple of weeks into the future. Maybe, with a lot more research, we'll get to monthly or seasonal MJO forecasts, but not yet! The current forecast is not very clear at all, either. You can read more and see the current forecasts here.

Submitted by emily.becker on Thu, 09/15/2022 - 18:04

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Have the Nino3.4 temps bottomed out? Looking at the CDAS Nino 3.4 Index line since late August the timeline looks flat.

Submitted by Bob G on Tue, 09/20/2022 - 12:59

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This prolonged La Nina has fooled me enough with short-term sea surface temperature variations, so I am not prepared to conclude that it has bottomed out. It seemed to have bottomed out several times before coming back down to levels near what we saw at the peak last fall. Some forecast models suggest that we should be near the lowest point, and some suggest we will get a little cooler by late fall. So, I don't expect Nino 3.4 sea surface temperatures to get much cooler than what they are now, but I cannot say that we have bottomed out yet. 

Submitted by Nathaniel.Johnson on Tue, 09/20/2022 - 16:23

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Thank you Very much for this primer about el nina and current situation. I learned a lot and helps me to understand hurricane influence.

Submitted by Illya on Wed, 09/28/2022 - 08:08

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Going to be a very nice mild winter perfect for us trekkers  , but bad for the  ski resorts who will be panicking because there will be no snow for skiing.....ha ha ..... that's how it's going to be.

Submitted by Anna on Thu, 09/29/2022 - 11:24

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Could the Author of this great writeup or any expert define what is a Triple Dip La Nina ?
Is Triple Dip La Nina a three continuous years La Nina condition or is it three consecutive La Nina with transition to Enso neutral conditions in between these consecutive La Nina ?

Submitted by Ashok Patel on Sun, 10/09/2022 - 10:40

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 Very heavy rains in the Karakoram Range has flooded 1/3 of Pakistan downriver. Very heavy rains in the central Himalayas so late in September also has caused floods, after a summer sowing season marked by intense drought.

What global meteorological conditions might have influenced these events?

Do you also study the Monsoon Trough that build up over the Ganga plains and causes lower than normal rainfall underneath it?  2 streams of descending air, one from the Himalayas, the other from central India?  Thanks in advance

Submitted by Vamadeva Bhatt… on Sat, 10/22/2022 - 16:16

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La Nina tends to produce wetter-than-normal conditions in the Pakistan region, and many Pakistan floods have occurred during La Nina. So, this La Nina may have been a factor in the recent floods, but other factors likely were necessary for such extreme conditions. I don't have the answers about what those factors, but this external blog post by Moet Ashfaq speculates on some of these factors. 

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Thank you for this friendly to read and easy to follow, informative article. You do great work... Thank you!

Submitted by Ali T on Wed, 10/26/2022 - 22:24

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Hello! Could I ask if there is a historical pattern of planetary temperature difference between the effects of La Niña, Neutral and El Niño ?

If La Niña cools down the planet, how much warmer can it get just by changing to a neutral pattern, and how much warmer yet by heading into an El Niño?

Thanks for your information and great blog!

Submitted by Alejandro Beta… on Wed, 01/04/2023 - 14:29

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Thanks for your question! Yes, ENSO does have a significant (though temporary) influence on globally averaged temperature. La Nina typically cools the globe by up to a few tenths of a degree Celsius, whereas El Nino typically warms it by a similar amount. Please feel free to check out these past blog posts (here and here) for more information.

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Why is it raining in the mountains of Costa Rica now when it is always dry and windy? Does it have something to do with La Nina?

Submitted by Anonymous on Thu, 01/26/2023 - 07:58

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