An assessment of the potential for abrupt state changes or regime shifts in ecosystems in response to climate change. Better understanding of sudden changes to ecosystems, and the goods and services they provide, is extremely important if natural resource managers are to succeed in developing adaptation strategies.
Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region
January 15, 2009
Global sea level is rising at an accelerating rate. This report examines the implications of rising sea level, with a focus on the U.S. mid-Atlantic region, where storm impacts occur and there is a large extent of critical habitat, high population densities, and infrastructure in low-lying areas.
Past Climate Variability and Change in the Arctic and at High Latitudes
January 1, 2009
Over the past 30 years, average temperatures in the Arctic have increased at almost twice the rate of the planet as a whole. Such temperature changes have been accompanied by shrinking sea ice, melting ice and permafrost on land, and widespread impacts to land and ocean ecosystems.
An assessment of abrupt climate change events where key aspects of Earth's climate system change faster than the responsible forcings would suggest and/or faster than society can respond. This report examines four types of abrupt change in Earth's past that were so rapid and so large in their impact that if they were to recur today they would pose clear risks to society in terms of our ability to adapt.
Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols
September 3, 2008
An assessment of the effects of short-lived gases and particles in the atmosphere. They can significantly change regional surface temperatures. By the year 2100 short-lived gases and particles may account for as much as 40 percent of the warming over the continental U.S. in summertime.
The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States
May 26, 2008
An assessment of the effects of climate change on U.S. land resources, water resources, agriculture, and biodiversity. There is robust consensus that human-induced climate change is occurring. This report discusses the nation's ability to identify, observe, and monitor climate-related stresses that influence agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity.
Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure ― Gulf Coast Study
March 25, 2008
As global temperatures increase, sea levels rise, and weather patterns change, the stewards of our Nation's infrastructure are challenged to consider how these changes may affect the country's roads, airports, rail, transit systems, and ports. This study focuses on potential impacts of climate change on human infrastructure in the U.S. Gulf Coast region.
Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences
March 31, 2006
This report addresses previously identified discrepancies between observations and simulations of surface and atmospheric temperature trends. It is an important revision to the conclusions of earlier reports from the U.S. National Research Council and the IPCC.