Climate Projections Based on Emissions Scenarios for Long-Lived and Short-Lived Radiatively Active Gases and Aerosols

An assessment of the effects of short-lived gases and particles in the atmosphere. They can significantly change regional surface temperatures. By the year 2100 short-lived gases and particles may account for as much as 40 percent of the warming over the continental U.S. in summertime.

Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations

The findings presented in this report draw from scenarios designed to stabilize the influence of a suite of greenhouse gases. Three climate-modeling groups independently developed a reference scenario and then developed four contrasting stabilization scenarios for comparison.

Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences

This report addresses previously identified discrepancies between observations and simulations of surface and atmospheric temperature trends.  It is an important revision to the conclusions of earlier reports from the U.S. National Research Council and the IPCC.