El Nino conditions strengthened in March. Where do forecasters think we're going from here?

ENSO model forecasts thumbnail

The model predictions during 2014 were not that shabby.  A major, strong El Niño was not well justified by the predictions. 

After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.

CFSv2 ensemble forecast Nino3.4 sea-surface temperature

The chance of an El Nino has dropped to about 65%. What led to this change in the forecast?

This interactive visualization is a suite of weather and climate datasets as well as tools with which to manipulate and display them visually.

This video is simple in its appearance, but it contains a wealth of relevant information about global climate models.

This is a simulation that illustrates how temperature will be affected by global CO2 emission trajectories. It addresses the issue that even if global emissions begin to decrease, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will continue to increase, resulting in increased global temperatures.

In this interactive simulation, students can explore global CO2 emissions displayed by different continents/countries and plotted based on the GDP. A map view is also accessible.

This animation depicts global surface warming as simulated by NCAR's Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Version 3. It shows the temperature anomalies relative to the end of the 19th century (1870-1899), both over the entire globe and as a global average. The model shows the temporary cooling effects during the 5 major volcanic eruptions of this time period, and then the model's estimates of warming under the different scenarios taken from the fourth IPCC report.

Students consider why the observed atmospheric CO2 increase rate is only ~60% of the CO2 loading rate due to fossil fuel combustion. They develop a box-model to simulate the atmospheric CO2 increase during the industrial era and compare it to the historic observations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The model is then used to forecast future concentrations of atmospheric CO2 during the next century.

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