The tropical Pacific Ocean sloshes around like water in your bathtub.  These waves are as important as the vortex of water that spirals down the drain.  

Blogger Tom Di Liberto explains the math behind some of the tests that seasonal forecasters use to check forecast skill, and then shows how skillful the past decade's winter forecasts have been.

A first look at how we evaluate seasonal forecasts. How well do our eyes do?

If we look only at rainfall changes, and not ocean temperatures, can we get a clearer picture of how climate change will influence ENSO? Guest blogger Mat Collins from University of Exeter explains what recent studies have to say.

ENSO diagnostic flowchart

The ENSO Diagnostic Discussion just came out. Sea surface temperatures are solidly above average in the equatorial Pacific... so what's behind forecasters' decision not to declare El Niño conditions?

An El Niño means lots of rain for California, correct? Well, some of the time, but not always.

After some very cold weather this month, folks are likely wondering if the early chill is a harbinger of things to come this winter. "Not necessarily," explains Mike Halpert of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in this week's ENSO blog post.

How to interpret climate outlooks and make $$$$ millions.*

**OK, maybe an overstatement, but you'll at least understand probabilistic forecasts better.  

sea surface height anomaly from satellite data

What's behind the drop in probabilities this month? And why might forecasting this event be particularly tricky?

How can warming at Earth’s surface have slowed when energy accumulation is growing? The role of our oceans—including ENSO—is key.

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